From what I read here it’s likely that they are using some zero-day, that’s not disclosed public, or wasn’t at the time. From that information a HIPS should be able to detect this tool, it’s unlikely that a AV will flag this as ‘CIPAV’. But as the tool needs to gather several details and has to submit them via some form back to the FBI it’s likely HIPS would detect some suspicious activity, unless we go in to theories like ‘M$’ backdoor by NSA kind of stuff…
As the pdf document (pg 17, 21a) suggests that ‘multiple CIPAV’s need to be deployed’ to increase the chance of activation they don’t seem to have a 100% infection vector, they are depending on some ‘flaw’ to get the user to ‘infect’ the machine(s).
Well if you don’t know exactly how it behaves and what it does, you can’t claim HIPS can find it…
Maybe they have created something they tested against all AV’s and known HIPS products and found a way to fly under their radars… unlikely but possible.
The recent HBGary issue shows that there are governments and people who look for 0-day holes in products and then don’t tell the vendor, so they can use this hole for this kind of applications.